COVID-19 models changing based on social parameters

Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, we’ve seen models predicting a wide range of numbers of total cases or deaths.

This is causing some confusion for some when they look at the projections.

Throughout the covid-19 pandemic, wee seen models predicting a wide range of numbers of total cases or deaths, but why is it so hard to n caleb n?

Fox 55 saylor explains more on how theye ork and how they being used to impact decision making.?

You hear of models all the time when it comes to weather.

You see futuretrack and think k it going to rain at 10am.

Same thing when it comes to covid-19 models.

They see data and say k, our peak will come in early may.

Much more complex and without an explanation, the message can be missed says elliott blumenthal, the chair of the biology department at purdue fort wayne who specializes in immunology ell a model is simp a model.

T until you get into the real- life sit know , you don how truly going to spread through the population.

0:23-0:28 what he means is that models are just a representation of what might happ a guess, not one hundred percent covid 19 models consider things like maximum cumulative death rate, location specific growth parameters, and the deadliness of t e virus but there some harder to predict.

The human element.

Humans move around all the time, make rash decisions like go to the grocery story everyday to get more toilet paper.

And the more people who are out during the peak, the more the models will underestimate the situation indiana governor eric holcomb said today the efforts hoosiers are taking are allowing them to reconsider the future.

Verything that you e been doing to fla the curve, to slow the spread, that why we find ourselves in a position to make some new decisions about how we go forward.

Says why the models over predicted in the beginning, because of the stay at home order.

Ecause we did take those precautions based on the models, the numbers of infections, the numbers of deaths were lower than what the models initially predicted.

Second guessing the severity of covid based on what the mode likely it because social distancing and the stay at home order worked.

In fort wayne, caleb saylor, fox 55 news