Original-Research: Aves One AG (von GBC AG)
Original-Research: Aves One AG - von GBC AG
Einstufung von GBC AG zu Aves One AG
Unternehmen: Aves One AG
ISIN: DE000A168114
Anlass der Studie: Research Report (Anno)
Empfehlung: Buy
Kursziel: 13.60 EUR
Kursziel auf Sicht von: 31.12.2021
Letzte Ratingänderung:
Analyst: Matthias Greiffenberger, Cosmin Filker
Very well positioned in the current corona crisis
2020 results at least at previous year's level
Aves One AG has completed a very successful financial year 2019 and is well
positioned to successfully navigate through the Corona crisis. In the 2019
financial year, revenues increased by 50.3% to €116.78 million (previous
year: €77.68 million) and EBITDA improved disproportionately by 62.1% to
€84.60 million (previous year: €52.19 million). This dynamic sales growth
was achieved by the expansion of assets under management in the previous
year and in the year before that. Their asset portfolio increased by 12.6%
to € 924.33 million (previous year: € 820.93 million) and the corresponding
gross yield rose to 12.6% (previous year: 9.5%). A very high occupancy rate
and a good rental yield also contributed to the increase in revenues.
The disproportionately high improvement in earnings was achieved thanks to
their very stable cost structure. The company has always relied on the
lean-management approach and high cost discipline. A significant
improvement was also achieved on the net level (adjusted for non-cash
currency effects), which rose by 130.7% to € 8.55 million (previous year: €
3.71 million).
The corona crisis will have a significant impact on world trade and the
global economy. This will also affect Aves One, but we believe that the
company is very well positioned for the crisis. This is particularly due to
the fact that Aves One AG, as a portfolio holder of long-lived logistics
assets, has mostly concluded long-term rental contracts and should
therefore be able to generate high occupancy rates with reliable cash flows
in the short term. Nevertheless, there should be a partial decline in
demand, which should have an impact on rental rates. As guidance, the
company has announced sales and EBITDA at least at the previous year's
level. In our opinion, this should be feasible even without asset
purchases, as the assets acquired in the fiscal year 2019 should already
lead to a higher revenue base. In addition, the rail sector in particular
should be used for essential supplies and is better suited in the crisis
period to transport goods across borders than, for example, numerous trucks
are.
Specifically, we assume that revenues in the current financial year 2020
will increase slightly by 2.0% to € 119.15 million (previous year: € 116.78
million); followed by a gradual increase in the rate of growth to 7.3% (€
127.87 million) in 2021, and to 11.7% (€ 142.8 million) in 2022. The
forecast depends largely on the corona crisis and therefore involves a
certain degree of uncertainty. Should the situation change significantly
again, we would adjust our estimates accordingly. In our opinion, there
should also be disproportionately large improvements in earnings in line
with the revenue increases. Consequently, we expect EBITDA of € 86.44
million (previous year: € 84.60 million) for the current financial year
2020 and € 93.49 million in 2021 and € 105.29 million in 2022.
Based on our DCF model, we have determined a target price of € 13.60 and
assign a BUY rating. This means we are maintaining our previous price
target. Our slightly lower forecast is compensated for by the roll-over
effect.
Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/20913.pdf
Kontakt für Rückfragen
Jörg Grunwald
Vorstand
GBC AG
Halderstraße 27
86150 Augsburg
0821 / 241133 0
research@gbc-ag.de
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Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG und Art. 20 MAR Beim oben analysierten Unternehmen ist folgender möglicher Interessenkonflikt gegeben: (5a,11); Einen Katalog möglicher Interessenkonflikte finden Sie unter:
http://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung.htm
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Date and time of completion of the research report: 22.05.2020 (11:00) - German version: 18.05.2020 (09:35)
Date and time of first publication: 27.05.2020 (13:10) - German version: 18.05.2020 (10:00)
Validity of the price target: until max. 31.12.2021
-------------------übermittelt durch die EQS Group AG.-------------------Für den Inhalt der Mitteilung bzw. Research ist alleine der Herausgeber bzw.
Ersteller der Studie verantwortlich. Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung
oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.